Orbit Tomography of Binary Supermassive Black Holes with Very Long Baseline Interferometry
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract In this work, we study how to infer the orbit of a supermassive black hole binary (SMBHB) by time-dependent measurements with very long baseline interferometry, such as the Event Horizon Telescope (EHT). Assuming a pointlike luminosity image model, we show that with multiple years of observations by EHT, it is possible to recover the SMBHB orbital parameters—eccentricity, (rescaled) semimajor axis, orbital frequency, and orbital angles—from their time-varying visibilities even if the binaries’ orbital periods are a few times longer than the duration of observation. Together with the future gravitational wave detections of resolved sources of SMBHBs with the pulsar timing array, and/or the detections of optical-band light curves, we will be able to further measure the individual mass of the binary, and also determine the Hubble constant if the total mass of the binary is measured through the light curves of the two black holes or measured by alternative methods.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".