Development of a Blood-based Transcriptional Risk Score for Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Rationale The ability of peripheral blood biomarkers to assess chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) risk and progression is unknown. Genetics and gene expression may capture important aspects of COPD-related biology that predict disease activity. Objectives Develop a transcriptional risk score (TRS) for COPD and assess the contribution of the TRS and a polygenic risk score (PRS) for disease susceptibility and progression. Methods We randomly split 2,569 COPDGene (Genetic Epidemiology of COPD) participants with whole-blood RNA sequencing into training (n = 1,945) and testing (n = 624) samples and used 468 ECLIPSE (Evaluation of COPD Longitudinally to Identify Predictive Surrogate End-points) COPD cases with microarray data for replication. We developed a TRS using penalized regression (least absolute shrinkage and selection operator) to model FEV1/FVC and studied the predictive value of TRS for COPD (Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease 2–4), prospective FEV1 change (ml/yr), and additional COPD-related traits. We adjusted for potential confounders, including age and smoking. We evaluated the predictive performance of the TRS in the context of a previously derived PRS and clinical factors. Measurements and Main Results The TRS included 147 transcripts and was associated with COPD (odds ratio, 3.3; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.4–4.5; P < 0.001), FEV1 change (β, −17 ml/yr; 95% CI, −28 to −6.6; P = 0.002), and other COPD-related traits. In ECLIPSE cases, we replicated the association with FEV1 change (β, −8.2; 95% CI, −15 to −1; P = 0.025) and the majority of other COPD-related traits. Models including PRS, TRS, and clinical factors were more predictive of COPD (area under the receiver operator characteristic curve, 0.84) and annualized FEV1 change compared with models with one risk score or clinical factors alone. Conclusions Blood transcriptomics can improve prediction of COPD and lung function decline when added to a PRS and clinical risk factors.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.007 | 0.011 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".