Numerical uncertainty in analytical pipelines lead to impactful variability in brain networks
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The analysis of brain-imaging data requires complex processing pipelines to support findings on brain function or pathologies. Recent work has shown that variability in analytical decisions, small amounts of noise, or computational environments can lead to substantial differences in the results, endangering the trust in conclusions. We explored the instability of results by instrumenting a structural connectome estimation pipeline with Monte Carlo Arithmetic to introduce random noise throughout. We evaluated the reliability of the connectomes, the robustness of their features, and the eventual impact on analysis. The stability of results was found to range from perfectly stable (i.e. all digits of data significant) to highly unstable (i.e. 0 - 1 significant digits). This paper highlights the potential of leveraging induced variance in estimates of brain connectivity to reduce the bias in networks without compromising reliability, alongside increasing the robustness and potential upper-bound of their applications in the classification of individual differences. We demonstrate that stability evaluations are necessary for understanding error inherent to brain imaging experiments, and how numerical analysis can be applied to typical analytical workflows both in brain imaging and other domains of computational sciences, as the techniques used were data and context agnostic and globally relevant. Overall, while the extreme variability in results due to analytical instabilities could severely hamper our understanding of brain organization, it also affords us the opportunity to increase the robustness of findings.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.024 | 0.170 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.004 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.004 | 0.003 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.004 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".