Efficacy of Biologic Drugs in Short-Duration Versus Long-Duration Inflammatory Bowel Disease: A Systematic Review and an Individual-Patient Data Meta-Analysis of Randomized Controlled Trials
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Starting biologic treatment early in the course of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) may be associated with higher efficacy, especially in Crohn's disease (CD). METHODS: This was a systematic review and individual-patient data meta-analysis of all placebo-controlled trials of biologics approved for IBD at study inception (October 2015), using Vivli data-sharing platform. The primary outcome was the proportional biologic/placebo treatment effect on induction of remission in patients with short-duration (≤18 months) vs long-duration disease (>18 months) analyzed separately for CD and ulcerative colitis (UC). We used meta-regression to examine the impact of patients' characteristics on the primary outcome. RESULTS: We included 25 trials, testing infliximab, adalimumab, certolizumab, golimumab, natalizumab, or vedolizumab (6168 patients with CD and 3227 patients with UC). In CD, remission induction rates were higher in pooled placebo and patients in active arms with short-duration disease of ≤18 months (41.4% [244 of 589]) compared with disease duration of >18 months (29.8% [852 of 2857], meta-analytically estimated odds ratio, 1.33; 95% confidence interval, 1.09-1.64). The primary outcome, proportional biologic/placebo treatment effect on induction of remission, was not different in short-duration disease of ≤18 months (n = 589, odds ratio, 1.47; 95% confidence interval, 1.01-2.15) compared with longer disease duration (n = 2857, odds ratio, 1.43; 95% confidence interval, 1.19-1.72). In UC trials, both the proportional biologic/placebo remission-induction effect and the pooled biologic-placebo effect were stable, regardless of disease duration. Primary outcome results remained unchanged when tested using alternative temporal cutoffs and when modeled for individual patient's covariates, including prior anti-tumor necrosis factor exposure. CONCLUSIONS: There are higher rates of induction of remission with biologics and with placebo in early CD, resulting in a treatment to placebo effect ratio that is similar across disease durations. No such relationships between disease duration and outcomes was found in UC. PROSPERO registration: CRD42018041961.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.035 | 0.065 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.003 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.023 | 0.052 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.009 | 0.009 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.004 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.003 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.003 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".