MétaCan
Menu
Back to cohort
Record W3209466551 · doi:10.32920/ryerson.14656170.v1

ANN-Based Day-Ahead Short Term Load Forecasting

2021· preprint· en· W3209466551 on OpenAlexaffabout
Heng Zhao

Bibliographic record

Venuenot available
Typepreprint
Languageen
FieldEngineering
TopicEnergy Load and Power Forecasting
Canadian institutionsToronto Metropolitan University
Fundersnot available
KeywordsComputer scienceElectric power systemReliability engineeringTerm (time)Reliability (semiconductor)Artificial intelligenceArtificial neural networkIndustrial engineeringOperations researchMachine learningEngineeringPower (physics)

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

Load forecasting (LF) is of great significance for effective operation, utilization, safety and reliability of the modern electric power systems. Load forecasting can be categorized into very short term, short-term, medium-term, and long-term forecasts, depending on which time scale is concerned. The short term load forecasting (STLF) plays an increasingly important role in achieving a more efficient, reliable and safe power system. Its outputs are the indispensable inputs of generating scheduling, power system security assessment and power dispatch. In the era of smart grid (SG), STLF is the basic building block to imply Demand Side Management (DSM) in areas such as automatic generation control, load estimation, energy purchasing, and contract evaluation, etc. The accuracy of STLF is of essential importance for both economic and reliability. In the last few decades, various methods have been devised and applied to perform STLF. Due to its superior capability of handling the nonlinearity, Artificial Intelligence (AI) based techniques are gaining more popularity in a variety of applications. The objective of this study is to review, categorize, evaluate, and analyze the principle, application, and performance of STLF techniques. It builds up several feed forward Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) models with different configurations, and studies the mechanism of ANN for effective STLF. With 12 years of hourly load and meteorological data sets of a section of the City of Toronto, the configurations are built up with different hidden layers, activating function, training algorithms and both un-normalized and normalized data to predict the day ahead STLF with satisfactory result achieved.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame distilled prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.000
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.000
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesMeta-epidemiology (narrow)
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Simulation or modeling · Consensus signal: Simulation or modeling
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.482
Threshold uncertainty score1.000

Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0010.001
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0010.000
Bibliometrics0.0000.000
Science and technology studies0.0000.000
Scholarly communication0.0000.000
Open science0.0000.000
Research integrity0.0000.001
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0000.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.033
GPT teacher head0.235
Teacher spread0.202 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.

Study designSimulation or modeling
Domainnot available
GenreEmpirical

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations0
Published2021
Admission routes2
Has abstractyes

Explore more

Same topicEnergy Load and Power ForecastingFrench-language works237,207