The Covid-19 trade contraction: A view from global shipping, the EU and China
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
This policy brief examines the effects of the Covid19 pandemic on international trade. Major exporting economies have posted record year-over-year monthly declines in export volume ranging from -7.9% in Germany to -24.3% in South Korea. While logistical bottlenecks are being solved, low demand puts pressure on trade activity. The shipping industry has reduced its activity around Europe, Asia and America by up to -10% pointing to a prolonged reduction in trade. Over the first quarter of 2020, China's trade contracted severely with most economies - particularly Canada, Japan, Russia, Italy and South Africa.The trade collapse affects businesses differently and especially hits those firms that participate in low-value added stages of global value chains by assembling components.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it