A Novel Machine Learning-Assisted Policy Recommendation Method on COVID-19 Vaccination Campaign
Bibliographic record
Abstract
As the most serious global infectious disease in the past 100 years, it has caused severe loss of life and property to countries and their people worldwide in the past year. As the most powerful tool in the fight against the epidemic, how to quickly promote the COVID-19 vaccine administration plays a vital role in gradually establishing an immune barrier in the population as soon as possible and blocking the COVID-19 epidemic. In this paper, we provide a machine learning-based policy recommendation method on the vaccination campaign of COVID-19 by minimizing three different cost factors: the duration of the pandemic, the budget of the COVID-19 battle as well as the death toll. To generate a more efficient vaccination policy, we construct an Age-stratified Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (ASSIR) model. We validate our method based on the real-world dataset of India by comparing our simulated results with the government's vaccination plan from machine learning prediction. Our approach shows a 13% decrease in disease control time and government budget. At the same time, we find out that vaccination based on each province's population leads to a 12.4% decrease in the death toll than on infection cases. The model developed in this study has practical implications for COVID-19 vaccination campaigns and the infection control of other infectious diseases.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.005 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".