Differential power of placebo across major psychiatric disorders: a preliminary meta-analysis and machine learning study
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The placebo effect across psychiatric disorders is still not well understood. In the present study, we conducted meta-analyses including meta-regression, and machine learning analyses to investigate whether the power of placebo effect depends on the types of psychiatric disorders. We included 108 clinical trials (32,035 participants) investigating pharmacological intervention effects on major depressive disorder (MDD), bipolar disorder (BD) and schizophrenia (SCZ). We developed measures based on clinical rating scales and Clinical Global Impression scores to compare placebo effects across these disorders. We performed meta-analysis including meta-regression using sample-size weighted bootstrapping techniques, and machine learning analysis to identify the disorder type included in a trial based on the placebo response. Consistently through multiple measures and analyses, we found differential placebo effects across the three disorders, and found lower placebo effect in SCZ compared to mood disorders. The differential placebo effects could also distinguish the condition involved in each trial between SCZ and mood disorders with machine learning. Our study indicates differential placebo effect across MDD, BD, and SCZ, which is important for future neurobiological studies of placebo effects across psychiatric disorders and may lead to potential therapeutic applications of placebo on disorders more responsive to placebo compared to other conditions.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.008 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.004 | 0.003 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.005 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".