Pulling Up by the Causal Bootstraps
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Machine learning models achieve state-of-the-art performance on many supervised learning tasks. However, prior evidence suggests that these models may learn to rely on "shortcut" biases or spurious correlations (intuitively, correlations that do not hold in the test as they hold in train) for good predictive performance. Such models cannot be trusted in deployment environments to provide accurate predictions. While viewing the problem from a causal lens is known to be useful, the seamless integration of causation techniques into machine learning pipelines remains cumbersome and expensive. In this work, we study and extend a causal pre-training debiasing technique called causal bootstrapping (CB) under five practical confounded-data generation-acquisition scenarios (with known and unknown confounding). Under these settings, we systematically investigate the effect of confounding bias on deep learning model performance, demonstrating their propensity to rely on shortcut biases when these biases are not properly accounted for. We demonstrate that such a causal pre-training technique can significantly outperform existing base practices to mitigate confounding bias on real-world domain generalization benchmarking tasks. This systematic investigation underlines the importance of accounting for the underlying data-generating mechanisms and fortifying data-preprocessing pipelines with a causal framework to develop methods robust to confounding biases.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.012 | 0.089 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.004 |
| Open science | 0.003 | 0.005 |
| Research integrity | 0.002 | 0.004 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.004 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".