Diurnal Variation in SARS-CoV-2 PCR Test Results: Test Accuracy May Vary by Time of Day
Bibliographic record
Abstract
False negative tests for SARS-CoV-2 are common and have important public health and medical implications. We tested the hypothesis of diurnal variation in viral shedding by assessing the proportion of positive versus negative SARS-CoV-2 reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) tests and cycle time (Ct) values among positive samples by the time of day. Among 86,342 clinical tests performed among symptomatic and asymptomatic patients in a regional health care network in the southeastern United States from March to August 2020, we found evidence for diurnal variation in the proportion of positive SARS-CoV-2 tests, with a peak around 1400 h and 1.7-fold variation over the day after adjustment for age, sex, race, testing location, month, and day of week and lower Ct values during the day for positive samples. These findings have important implications for public health testing and vaccination strategies.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.003 | 0.024 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".