Monetary and Fiscal Policies Interaction in a Large Emerging Economy: Which Is the Leader Policy?
Bibliographic record
Abstract
This article analyzed the intertemporal interaction between monetary and fiscal policies in Brazil. We aimed at identifying if structural innovations to the real interest rate were able to induce unexpected effects on fiscal and inflation dynamics. To do so, we estimated Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR) models over the period from Jan/2004 to Apr/2019. Moreover, we filtered out the time series’ long-memory component through a fractional integration approach, so that we did not build our analysis on traditional unit root tests. The findings showed that monetary policy shocks robustly activated an unconventional transmission channel based on the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level, i.e., an unexpected and induced change in primary surpluses, through a wealth effect, as mechanism to satisfy the Government’s intertemporal budget constraint. Such a result is strongly linked to another evidence, that is, the monetary policy`s role as a leader in shaping inflation over time.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".