Detecting temporal anomalies with pseudo age groups: Homeownership in Canada, 1981 to 2016
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Methodological advances in demographic research, especially age‐period‐cohort (APC) analysis, primarily focus on developing new models yet often fail to consider practical concerns in empirical analysis. We propose a mixed approach that integrates multiple data imputation and structural change analysis in time series so that scholars can (i) construct pseudo age groups based on more coarsely grouped age data and (ii) identify temporal anomalies. This approach is illustrated using multiple waves of Canadian Population Census data (1981–2016). We construct pseudo age groups based on more coarse age information available in the Census data and identify a local anomaly in the temporal trajectory of homeownership in Canada's less populous provinces and territories. These findings are assessed and validated in comparison with results from more populous Canadian provinces. This research broadens the methodological repertoire for demographers, geographers, and social scientists in general and extends the literature on homeownership in an understudied area.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.008 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.006 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".