Beech tree masting explains the inter-annual variation in the fall and spring peaks of <i>Ixodes ricinus</i> ticks with different time lags
Bibliographic record
Abstract
ABSTRACT Background The tick Ixodes ricinus is an important vector of tick-borne diseases including Lyme borreliosis. In continental Europe, the nymphal stage of I. ricinus often has a bimodal phenology with a large spring/early summer peak and a smaller fall peak. While there is consensus about the origin of the spring nymphal peak, there are two alternative hypotheses for the fall nymphal peak, direct development versus delayed diapause. These two hypotheses make different predictions about the time lags of the correlations between the spring peak, the fall peak, and seed production (masting) by deciduous trees. Methods To determine which hypothesis is most important for explaining the fall peak, we used data from a long-term surveillance study (15 years) on the density of I. ricinus nymphal ticks at 4 different elevation sites in an area of Switzerland that is endemic for Lyme borreliosis, and long-term data on the mast of the European beech tree from the literature. Results I. ricinus nymphs had a bimodal phenology at the three lower elevation sites, but a unimodal phenology at the top elevation site. At the lower elevation sites, the density of nymphs (DON) in the fall was strongly correlated with the DON in the spring of the following year. The inter-annual variation in the densities of I. ricinus nymphs in the fall and spring were best explained by a 1-year versus a 2-year time lag with the beech tree masting index. Fall nymphs had higher fat content and are younger than spring nymphs. All of these observations are consistent with the direct development hypothesis for the fall peak of I. ricinus nymphs at our study site. Our study provides new insight into the complex bimodal phenology of this important disease vector. Conclusions Public health officials in Europe should be aware that following a strong mast year, the DON will increase 1 year later in the fall and 2 years later in the spring and summer. Population ecology studies of I. ricinus should consider that the spring and fall peak in the same calendar year represent different generations of ticks.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".