Bibliographic record
Abstract
Fossil fuels were exposed to a major shock during the Global Financial Crisis of 2007/08. This paper examines the influence of Brent Crude Oil, Natural Gas and Coal on three major European power markets (APXUK, NordPool and Phelix) during this period of uncertainty. Both univariate and bivariate frameworks are employed to evaluate, short run, long run and asymmetric power market responses to fossil fuels behaviour. The results point to a stronger relationship between fossil fuel shocks and the APXUK market across all three generational fuels, while results for Phelix are significant only in the case of coal and crude oil. For the Nordic region there is no significant evidence of a causal effect between the power market and the broader energy markets. These findings highlight that the Nordic market appears to be insulated from fossil fuel shocks thanks to its strong focus on renewables, while APXUK and Phelix were significantly exposed to fossil fuels fluctuations.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".