Prevailing winds and spruce budworm outbreaks: a reaction-diffusion-advection model
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
We extend the classical reaction-diffusion model for spatial population dynamics of spruce budworm on a finite domain with hostile boundary conditions by including an advection term representing biased unidirectional movement of individuals due to a prevailing wind. We use phase-plane techniques to establish existence of a critical value of advection speed that prevents outbreak solutions on any finite domain while possibly allowing an endemic solution. We obtain lower and upper bounds for this critical advection value in terms of biological parameters involved in the reaction term. We also perform numerical simulations to illustrate the effect of advection on the dependence of the domain size on the maximal population density of a steady state solution and on critical domain sizes for endemic and outbreak solutions. The results are also applicable to other ecological settings (rivers, climate change) where a logistically growing population is subject to predation by a generalist, diffusion and biased movement.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it