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Volcanic climate forcing preceding the inception of the Younger Dryas: Implications for tracing the Laacher See eruption

2021· article· en· W3212136267 on OpenAlex
Peter M Abbott, Ulrike Niemeier, Claudia Timmreck, Felix Riede, Joseph R. McConnell, Mirko Severi, Hubertus Fischer, Anders Svensson, Matthew Toohey, Frederick Reinig, Michael Sigl

Why this work is in the frame

A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.

affAt least one author lists a Canadian institution in the pinned OpenAlex snapshot.

Bibliographic record

VenueQuaternary Science Reviews · 2021
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldEarth and Planetary Sciences
TopicGeology and Paleoclimatology Research
Canadian institutionsUniversity of Saskatchewan
FundersH2020 European Research CouncilHorizon 2020Deutsche ForschungsgemeinschaftEuropean CommissionSchweizerischer Nationalfonds zur Förderung der Wissenschaftlichen ForschungDeutsches KlimarechenzentrumUniversity of BernEuropean Research CouncilNational Science Foundation
KeywordsYounger DryasGeologyVolcanoForcing (mathematics)TephraClimatologyVulcanian eruptionAllerød oscillationOceanographyPhysical geographyHolocenePaleontologyGeography

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

Climatic warming from the last glacial maximum to the current interglacial period was punctuated by a ∼1300 years long cold period, commonly referred to as the Younger Dryas (YD). Several hypotheses have been proposed for the mechanism triggering the abrupt inception of the YD, including freshwater forcing, an extra-terrestrial impact, and aerosols from volcanic eruptions. Here, we use synchronised sulphate and sulphur records from both Greenland and Antarctic ice cores to reconstruct volcanic forcing between 13,200–12,800 a BPGICC05 (years before 1950 CE on the Greenland Ice Core Chronology 2005; GICC05). This continuous reconstruction of stratospheric sulphur injections highlights a ∼110-year cluster of four major bipolar volcanic signals alongside several smaller events just prior to the YD inception. The cumulative Northern Hemisphere aerosol burden and radiative forcing from this cluster exceeds the most volcanically active periods during the Common Era, which experienced notable multidecadal scale cooling commonly attributed to volcanic effects. The Laacher See eruption (LSE), recently redated to 13,006 ± 9 cal a BP, falls within our time window of study and has been proposed as a trigger for the YD but a direct volcanic imprint for the LSE in the Greenland ice cores has thus far proved elusive. Comparison of simulated sulphate deposition for mid- and high-sulphur LSE-type emission scenarios to the ice-core estimated sulphate deposition and interhemispheric asymmetry ratios allows several signals between 13,025 and 12,975 a BPGICC05 to be proposed as plausible candidates for the LSE. The magnitude and persistence of volcanic forcing directly preceding the YD inception highlights the need to consider stratospheric sulphur injections and their radiative forcing in future analyses and climate model experiments used to explore the mechanisms that triggered this or similar abrupt cooling events.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

Full frame distilled prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.004
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.000
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesScience and technology studies
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Observational · Consensus signal: Observational
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.020
Threshold uncertainty score0.999

Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0040.000
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.000
Bibliometrics0.0000.001
Science and technology studies0.0020.001
Scholarly communication0.0000.000
Open science0.0010.000
Research integrity0.0000.000
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0000.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.070
GPT teacher head0.330
Teacher spread0.260 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it