Revisiting the Link between House Prices and Monetary Policy
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract This paper revisits the link between house prices and monetary policy using a data set on house prices provided by the Bank for International Settlements. It is found that a loose monetary policy unambiguously results in a rise in real house prices, and such an increase is statistically significant for 19 of the 20 countries studied here. Empirical results also show that for some countries (Belgium, Canada, Switzerland, Denmark, the Netherlands, Sweden, and South Africa), the interest rate shock can explain a large percentage of real house price movements. The response of house prices to monetary policy shocks varies between countries, and the strength of the relationship between house prices and monetary policy can be associated with financial liberalization. On the other hand, evidence shows that interest rate shock plays an important role in explaining recent house price hikes for Australia, Spain, Ireland, the Netherlands, the US, and South Africa. In particular, during 2002–2006, on average 24% of the house price hikes in the US can be attributed to monetary policy shocks. Finally, we also find evidence that central banks react to the housing market, particularly in those countries adopting a policy of inflation targeting.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".