Trends in Homeschooling Rates Following Elimination of Nonmedical Exemptions to Childhood Immunizations, 2012-2020
Bibliographic record
Abstract
STRUCUTRED ABSTRACT Introduction In 2015 California passed Senate Bill No. 277 (SB 277) and became the first state in over 30 years to eliminate nonmedical exemptions to mandatory childhood immunizations for school entry. One concern that emerged was that the law created an incentive for parents to remove children from brick-and-mortar schools to bypass the immunization requirements. Objective To assess the impact of eliminating nonmedical exemptions to childhood immunizations on homeschooling rates. Design Pre-Post Intervention study. We calculated homeschooling rates as the number of K-8 students enrolled through each of California’s three homeschooling mechanisms (Independent Study Program, Private School Affidavit, and Private School Satellite Program) divided by all K-8 students enrolled in the same academic year. Data on homeschooling rates was obtained from the California Department of Education. We then conducted an interrupted time series analyses in which the outcome variable was percent of students enrolled in a homeschool program pre- and post-SB 277. Setting California homeschools Participants K-8 students enrolled through each of the state’s three homeschooling mechanisms (Independent Study Program, Private School Affidavit, and Private School Satellite Program) Intervention Passage of SB 277 which eliminated nonmedical exemptions to childhood immunizations for school entry Main Outcome K-8 homeschooling rates Results The homeschooling enrollment for K-8 students in California increased from 0.8% (35,122 students) during SY 2012-13 to 1.9% (86,574 students) during SY 2019-20; however, we found no significant increase in the percent of students enrolled in homeschooling programs in California following the implementation of SB 277 beyond the secular trend. Conclusions and Relevance Legislative action to limit nonmedical exemptions to compulsory vaccination for school entry is not associated with removal from classroom-based instruction in brick- and-mortar institutions. KEY POINTS Question What is effect of California Senate Bill No. 277, which eliminated nonmedical exemptions to childhood immunizations for school entry, on the homeschooling rates? Finding We found no evidence that elimination of nonmedical exemptions to mandatory childhood immunizations for school entry was associated with an increase in homeschooling rates for K-8 in California. Meaning Legislative action to limit nonmedical exemptions to compulsory vaccination for school entry is not associated with removal from classroom-based instruction in brick-and-mortar institutions.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".