A Bayesian Linear Regression Approach to Predict Traffic Congestion
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Regression-based traffic modelling can estimate traffic congestion as a response variable by incorporating explanatory spatiotemporal components. Bayesian inference is widely used in traffic modelling as it has advantages over a frequentist approach. Previous approaches mainly focused on offsetting Bayesian inference by incorporating supervised feature extraction, data redistribution and competitive expectation-maximization techniques to achieve better accuracy in traffic forecasting. Unlike the frequentist approach, these combined Bayesian inference approaches lack interpretability. This paper proposes a simple Bayesian Linear Regression approach for spatiotemporal traffic congestion prediction that leverages Bayesian inference to facilitate model interpretability and quantify model uncertainty. The model is evaluated in terms of mean absolute error (MAE) and root mean squared error (RMSE). The experiment shows that Bayesian linear regression modelling can be trained on small data observations to quantify model uncertainty and predict traffic congestion without sacrificing interpretability and accuracy in comparison with the frequentist approach.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.004 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".