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Record W3214564213 · doi:10.1101/2021.11.01.21265445

δ subvariants of SARS-COV-2 in Israel, Qatar and Bahrain: Optimal vaccination as an effective strategy to block viral evolution and control the pandemic

2021· preprint· en· W3214564213 on OpenAlexafffund
Xiang‐Jiao Yang

Bibliographic record

VenuemedRxiv · 2021
Typepreprint
Languageen
FieldMedicine
TopicSARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 Research
Canadian institutionsMcGill UniversityMcGill University Health Centre
FundersNatural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of CanadaCanadian Institutes of Health ResearchUniversità di BolognaCompute Canada
KeywordsPandemicGenomeVaccinationMiddle EastGeographyVirologyBiologyCoronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)DemographyGeneGeneticsMedicineSociology

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

ABSTRACT δ variant has rapidly become the predominant pandemic driver and yielded four subvariants (δ1, δ2, δ3 and δ4). Among them, δ1 has been mainly responsible for the latest COVID-19 waves in India, Southeast Asia, Europe and the USA. A relevant question is how δ subvariants may have driven the pandemic in the rest of the world. In both Israel and Qatar, mRNA-based vaccination has been rolled out competitively, but the outcomes are quite different in terms of controlling the recent waves resulting from δ variant. This raises the question whether δ subvariants have acted differently in Israel and Qatar. In both countries, δ variant was first identified in April 2021 and δ1 subvariant constituted ∼50% δ genomes from April to May 2021. But the situation started to diverge in June 2021: In Israel, δ1 variant was encoded by 92.0% δ genomes, whereas this fraction was only 43.9% in Qatar. Moreover, a δ1 sublineage encoding spike T791I was identified in Israel but not Qatar. This sublineage accounted for 31.8% δ genomes sequenced in June 2021 and declined to 13.3% in October 2021. In August 2021, δ1 also became dominant in Qatar and a major sublineage encoding spike D1259H emerged. This sublineage has evolved further and acquired additional spike substitutions, including K97E, S255F, I693S, I712S, I1104L, E1258D and/or V1177I, in Qatar and other countries, such as Czech Republic, France and Mexico. Monthly distribution of the above sublineages suggests that the one from Qatar is much more of concern than that from Israel. Different from what was in Israel and Qatar, δ2 subvariant has also been important in Bahrain, whereas a δ2 sublineage encoding spike V1264L and A1736V of NSP3 was dominant in June 2021, but was gradually taken over by δ1 subvariant. These results suggest that δ1 and δ2 subvariants continue their evolution in different countries. The recent successful pandemic control in Israel, Qatar and Bahrain supports that δ1 and δ2 subvariants are still sensitive to timed vaccination, thereby urging the use of optimal immunity as a strategy to block SARS-COV-2 evolution and control the pandemic.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame machine prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.000
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.000
Version: metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061cValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Simulation or modeling · Consensus signal: none
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.012
Threshold uncertainty score0.024

Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.000
Bibliometrics0.0000.000
Science and technology studies0.0000.000
Scholarly communication0.0010.000
Open science0.0000.000
Research integrity0.0000.000
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0010.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.035
GPT teacher head0.358
Teacher spread0.323 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.

The models applied no category: nothing in the taxonomy fit this work.
Study designSimulation or modeling
Domainnot available
GenreEmpirical

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations4
Published2021
Admission routes2
Has abstractyes

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