Long-term Effects of In Utero Exposure to “The Year without a Summer”
Bibliographic record
Abstract
This paper uses the aftermath of the great Tambora eruption in 1815 as a natural experiment to explore the long-term effects of a nutritional shock during prenatal development. The volcanic explosion of Tambora formed substantial ash columns which hampered sunlight, cooled down the surface temperature, reduced the length of the growing season, and led to a severe harvest failure during summer and winter of 1816 in Europe and northeastern states of America. US decennial census 1850 provides evidence that cohorts in utero during the climate anomaly revealed lower literacy rates, lower labor force participation rates, a fewer number of own children, and a higher female-male ratio. The results are confirmed among the same cohorts in England, Canada, and Norway. The decennial census of each country indicates negative effects of exposure during prenatal development on labor market participation rates in adulthood.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".