EPCO-32. IDENTIFICATION OF PROGNOSTIC CHORDOMA SUBGROUPS USING DNA METHYLATION SIGNATURES IN TISSUE AND PLASMA
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract BACKGROUND Chordomas are malignant bone cancers arising from the skull-base and spine that are rare but cause devastating central nervous system morbidities. Survival is highly variable despite surgery and radiotherapy as 10% live under 1 year and 30-35% survive over 20 years. There are currently no reliable prognostic factors and this limits our ability to tailor patient treatment to their risk. Accordingly, this work identifies epigenetic prognostic chordoma subgroups that are detectable non-invasively through plasma methylomes to guide treatment. METHODS A total of 68 chordoma surgical specimens resected between 1996-2018 across three international centres underwent DNA methylation profiling. Cell-free methylated tumor DNA immunoprecipitation and high-throughput sequencing was performed on available matched plasma samples. RESULTS Two stable tumor clusters were identified through consensus clustering of tissue methylation data. Clusters had statistically significantly different disease-specific survivals (log-rank p=0.0062) independent of clinical factors in a multivariable Cox analysis (HR=16.5, 95%CI: 2.8-96, p=0.0018). The poorer-performing “Immune-infiltrated” cluster had genes hypomethylated at promoters, typically resulting in transcription, within immune-related pathways and higher immune cell abundance within tumors. The better-performing “Cellular” cluster showed higher tumor cellularity plus cell-to-cell interaction and extracellular matrix pathway hypomethylation. Fifty chordoma-versus-other binomial generalized linear models built using plasma methylome data distinguished chordomas from meningiomas and spinal metastases, as representative clinical differential diagnoses, in random left-out 20% testing sets (mean AUROC=0.84, 95%CI: 0.52-1.00). Plasma-based methylation signatures were highly correlated with tissue-based signals within both poor-performing (median r=0.69, 95%CI: 0.66-0.72) and better-performing cluster tumors (median r=0.67, 95%CI: 0.62-0.72). CONCLUSIONS The first identification of two distinct prognostic epigenetic chordoma subgroups is shown here with “Immune-infiltrated” tumors having a poorer prognosis than “Cellular” tumors. Plasma methylomes can be utilized for non-invasive chordoma diagnosis and subtyping. This work may transform chordoma treatment decision-making by guiding surgical planning in advance to match resection aggressiveness with patient prognosis.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".