Oil Price Shocks in Major Emerging Economies
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
As the world economic power shifts from the advanced G7 countries—Canada,France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States—to the seven largest emerging market countries (EM7)—Brazil, China, India, Indonesia,Mexico, Russia, and Turkey—the vulnerability of these emerging market countries to exogenous shocks is becoming of growing importance. This paper presents a comprehensive examination of the effects of oil price shocks on real economic activity in the EM7 economies in the context of two classes of empirical models.In general, we find that oil price uncertainty has statistically significant effects on the real output of the EM7 economies and that the relationship between oil prices and economic activity is in general symmetric. We also find that oil price uncertainty has in general a negative effect on world crude oil production.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it