A new model of forelimb ecomorphology for predicting the ancient habitats of fossil turtles
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Various morphological proxies have been used to infer habitat preferences among fossil turtles and their early ancestors, but most are tightly linked to phylogeny, thereby minimizing their predictive power. One particularly widely used model incorporates linear measurements of the forelimb (humerus + ulna + manus), but in addition to the issue of phylogenetic correlation, it does not estimate the likelihood of habitat assignment. Here, we introduce a new model that uses intramanual measurements (digit III metacarpal + non‐ungual phalanges + ungual) to statistically estimate habitat likelihood and that has greater predictive strength than prior estimators. Application of the model supports the hypothesis that stem‐turtles were primarily terrestrial in nature and recovers the nanhsiungchelyid Basilemys (a fossil crown‐group turtle) as having lived primarily on land, despite some prior claims to the contrary.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.004 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.003 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.004 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".