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Record W3216491865 · doi:10.21203/rs.3.rs-1031503/v1

Prediction of stand carbon (C) storage and net primary production (NPP) of secondary forests in subtropical China: the effect of climate change and its contribution to carbon neutrality in 2060

2021· preprint· en· W3216491865 on OpenAlexaff
Jia Jin, Wenhua Xiang, Yelin Zeng, Shuai Ouyang, Xiaolu Zhou, Yanting Hu, Zhonghui Zhao, Liang Chen, Pifeng Lei, Xiangwen Deng, Hui Wang, Shirong Liu, Changhui Peng

Bibliographic record

VenueResearch Square · 2021
Typepreprint
Languageen
FieldEnvironmental Science
TopicForest ecology and management
Canadian institutionsUniversité du Québec à Montréal
FundersNational Key Research and Development Program of ChinaNational Forestry and Grassland Administration
KeywordsEvergreenPrimary productionDeciduousEnvironmental scienceCarbon sequestrationClimate changeSubtropicsForestryAgroforestryTropical and subtropical moist broadleaf forestsCarbon neutralityEcologyEcosystemGeographyGreenhouse gasBiologyCarbon dioxide

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

Abstract Background Forest ecosystems play an important role in carbon sequestration and climate change mitigation, as well as achieving target for carbon neutrality in 2060 proposed by the Chinese government. However, changes in carbon storage and net primary production in natural secondary forests stemming from tree growth and future climate change have not yet been investigated in subtropical areas in China with complex compositions of tree species. Here, we used data from inventory plots in four secondary forests (evergreen broad-leaved forest, deciduous and evergreen broad-leaved mixed forest, deciduous broad-leaved forest, and coniferous and broad-leaved mixed forest) at different restoration stages and run a hybrid model (TRIPLEX 1.6) to predict changes in stand carbon storage and net primary production under two future climate change scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Results There was a high correlation between predicted and observed values (R2 > 0.87) for average stand diameter at breast height (1.3m), stand density, carbon storage, and net primary production in the four forests, indicating that the simulations by TRIPLEX1.6 were accurate. Net primary production was highest in deciduous and evergreen broad-leaved mixed forest (3.95 t ha−1 yr−1 in 2030 and 3.81 t ha−1 yr−1 in 2060), indicating a high carbon storage capacity. Evergreen broad-leaved forest is the subtropical climax community and can store large amounts of carbon (85.22 t ha−1 in 2030 and 135.76 t ha−1 in 2060). Net primary production in coniferous and broad-leaved mixed forests increased gradually over time but decreased over time in the other three forests. Net primary production was greater in young forest compared with mature forest. The effects of climate change (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) on carbon storage significantly differed between coniferous and broad-leaved mixed forest and the other three forest types (p < 0.001). Conclusions Stand carbon storage of evergreen broad-leaved forest was predicted to be the largest. Nevertheless, the carbon sequestration potential under future climate change was still limited in the short and medium-term. The floristic composition and tree growth of existing forests should be properly managed in order to enhance carbon sequestration for climate change mitigation.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame machine prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.000
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.000
Version: metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061cValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Simulation or modeling · Consensus signal: Simulation or modeling
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.082
Threshold uncertainty score0.163

Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0010.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.001
Bibliometrics0.0000.000
Science and technology studies0.0000.000
Scholarly communication0.0010.000
Open science0.0010.000
Research integrity0.0010.000
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0010.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.022
GPT teacher head0.293
Teacher spread0.270 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.

The models applied no category: nothing in the taxonomy fit this work.
Study designSimulation or modeling
Domainnot available
GenreEmpirical

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations0
Published2021
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes

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