Transferability of a Machine Learning-Based Model of Hourly Traffic Volume Estimation—Florida and New Hampshire Case Study
Bibliographic record
Abstract
This paper focuses on the problem of model transferability for machine learning models used to estimate hourly traffic volumes. The presented findings enable not only an increase in the accuracy of existing models but also, simultaneously, reduce the cost of data needed for training the models—making statewide traffic volume estimation more economically feasible. Previous research indicates that machine learning volume estimation models that leverage GPS probe data can provide transportation agencies with accurate estimates of hourly traffic volumes—which are fundamental for both operational and planning purposes—and do so with a higher level of accuracy than the prevailing profiling method. However, this approach requires a large dataset for model calibration (i.e., input and continuous count station data), which involves significant monetary investment and data-processing effort. This paper proposes solutions, which allow the model to be prepared using a much smaller dataset, given that a previously collected dataset, which may be gathered in a different place and time period, exists. Based on a broad selection of experiments, the results indicate that the proposed approach is capable of achieving similar model performance while collecting data for a 5 times shorter time period and utilizing 1/4 of the number of continuous count stations. These findings will help reduce the cost of preparing and maintaining the traffic volume models and render the traffic volume estimations more financially appealing.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".