The role of propagule pressure and environmental factors on the establishment of a large invasive cyprinid: black carp in the Laurentian Great Lakes basin
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Understanding the factors underlying species establishment is critical for the management of invasive fishes, yet the roles of propagule pressure and environmental factors are infrequently quantified in joint models. We estimated the establishment likelihood of the invasive black carp (Mylopharyngodon piceus) by examining the relative influence of propagule pressure (introduction size and age structure) and environmental factors (temperature-driven young-of-year [YOY] overwinter survival, adult survival, age at maturity, and longevity). Simulations demonstrated that both propagule pressure and environmental factors can act as non-linear bottlenecks to establishment. When the model was applied to 12 Great Lakes tributaries and nearshore areas, black carp establishment was probable with sufficient propagules and under most environmental conditions (median p = 0.21–0.73, 0.70–1.00, and 0.46–0.97 for 100 pairs of age 4, age 9, and age 16 fish, respectively), except for YOY (p < 0.01). Our analysis is one of the few studies to examine the relative role of propagule pressure and environmental conditions on establishment, indicating that both factors can lead to establishment failure independently or concurrently within an ecosystem.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".