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Record W326839815

Deposit Gathering in Hard Times: "Flight to Quality" Hasn't Occurred Everywhere, but a Higher Cost of Insurance Has. Banks Are Adjusting Tactics to New Rules of Engagement

2009· article· en· W326839815 on OpenAlexaboutno aff
Lauren Bielski

Bibliographic record

VenueABA banking journal · 2009
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldEconomics, Econometrics and Finance
TopicEconomic, financial, and policy analysis
Canadian institutionsnot available
Fundersnot available
KeywordsDeposit insuranceBasis pointLoanBusinessQuarter (Canadian coin)Actuarial scienceQuality (philosophy)FinanceInterest rateEconomicsHistory
DOInot available

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

[ILLUSTRATION OMITTED] They say timing is everything. The cliche certainly applies--in the negative sense--to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation's decision to levy a premium hike for insurance this quarter. Banks in all risk categories will see premiums increase by seven cents for every $100 of deposits, because of, and despite, current conditions. It's one more element that makes the business of banking, including deposit gathering, a lot harder. Under the final rule, issued Dec. 16, risk-based rates will range between 12 and 50 basis points, annualized, for the first-quarter 2009 assessment. (Given their risk profiles, most institutions will, in fact, be charged between 12 and 14 basis points.) This is bad news for the industry, says John Boucher, CEO, of the $950 million assets South Shore Savings Bank, South Weymouth, Mass. This is bad news for this bank, operating as it does in the state of Massachusetts where the Depositors Insurance Fund (DIF), applies. In effect, it will cost us about $600,000. His comments echo the frustrations of many bankers over the double whammy of sharply increased premiums (they were not needed at all for years) and a much higher level of insured deposit coverage. The scenario is complicating the already difficult math of deposit and loan pricing. While banks recognize the need for the premiums to rebuild the fund--and largely welcome the higher coverage--the frustration comes over the underlying causes of all this, which most of the industry had little to do with. Current events have certainly made most traditional bankers edgy. There was a coordinated pushback by the ABA and various state associations when the FDIC first announced its proposal. Their point was that rebuilding the fund faster than necessary would drain funds from banks that could otherwise be loaned. That message had some effect because the FDIC originally wanted a steeper rate hike--particularly for institutions with less than stellar risk ratings. In its December release, FDIC settled on a phased-in approach, with additional changes taking place in the second quarter. Strictly speaking, the rate hike was planned as early as last March, when drains on FDIC reserves kicked off rumblings of the need to rebuild the FDIC's fund. But clearly increase was in response to the drain on the fund from recent failed-bank resolutions, plus increased coverage and other commitments. Does anyone believe that the increase to $250,000 will be temporary? Boucher asks rhetorically. In fact, bankers polled at ABA's Annual Convention last fall indicated by an overwhelming majority that a rollback wouldn't be likely. Flight varies by region By now, anyone who cares knows the story cold: Wall Street investment banks and assorted hangers on had a run of excess, flamed out like a troubled airplane falling from the sky, and the economy has been left staggering as a result. In terms of deposits, conditions were set for a classic flight to safety. That is, if you can find the pattern--and read it like a trail of smoke. Charles Runde, president and CEO, First National Bank of Platteville in Wisconsin, wonders why the flight phenomenon hasn't been more pronounced for his $150.8 million-assets institution. It could be that, at the bottom of the cycle, people are afraid to move their money, Runde says. Instead of seeking preservation or comparatively modest creep-back of value, consumers may be leaving funds parked on the Street waiting for a rebound. While he sees the logic to it, First National's CEO is still disappointed: I would have expected more in the way of funds coming in, he says. John Boucher (pronounced Bu-shay) says, in contrast, that his bank's experience of the flight to safety was immediate and dramatic in September and October, when some individuals came in with checks to deposit for $300,000. …

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How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame machine prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.001
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.007
Version: metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061cValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Not applicable · Consensus signal: Not applicable
GenreCandidate signal: Other · Consensus signal: none
Teacher disagreement score0.069
Threshold uncertainty score0.230

Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0010.007
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.000
Bibliometrics0.0000.001
Science and technology studies0.0070.004
Scholarly communication0.0080.007
Open science0.0010.003
Research integrity0.0070.010
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0690.027

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.105
GPT teacher head0.290
Teacher spread0.186 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.

The models applied no category: nothing in the taxonomy fit this work.
Study designNot applicable
Domainnot available
GenreOther

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations0
Published2009
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes

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