Population Growth in Rural and Small Town Ontario: Metropolitan Decentralization or deconcentration?/La Croissance De la Population Dans Les Petites Villes et Les Regions Rurales De l'Ontario : La Decentralisation Ou la Deconcentration Metropolitaines?
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Between 1996 and 2001, Ontario experienced an increase in its rural and small town population. This paper determines whether growth was a result of metropolitan decentralization or deconcentration. Analysis of migration data reveals that movement from metropolitan regions to municipalities under strong or moderate urban influence (i.e. decentralization) accounted for almost one-half of all migrations. Comparable movement to rural settings under weak or no urban influence (i.e. deconcentration) represented 3% of all relocations. Migration from census agglomerations, and other rural settlements, also promoted growth of non-metropolitan municipalities. It is concluded that although metropolitan decentralization was the most important migration path, it is one of many which led migrants into rural Ontario during this 5-year period. Resume Entre 1996 et 2001, l'Ontario a enregistre une croissance demographique dans ses regions rurales et ses petites villes. Cet article s'efforce de determiner si cette croissance est le resultat d'une deconcentration ou d'une decentralisation urbaine. L'analyse des donnees de recensement des migrations montre que les residents empruntent divers chemins migratoires. Les regions metropolitaines de recensement (RMR) et les municipalites sous influence urbaine moderee ou forte (decentralisation) representent pres de la moitie des migrations. En revanche, le mouvement des regions metropolitaines vers les regions rurales sous influence urbaine faible ou nulle (deconcentration) ne represente qu'environ 3 % du total des deplacements. L'analyse constate que les migrations d'habitants des plus petites agglomerations urbaines (agglomerations de recensement ou AR) contribuent egalement a la croissance demographique des regions rurales et des petites villes de l'Ontario. La migration a partir des AR vers les regions rurales et les petites villes sous influence urbaine moderee ou forte (decentralisation sous-metropolitaine) represente un cinquieme de tous les mouvements de population. A l'inverse, la deconcentration sous-metropolitaine (migration vers des regions sous influence urbaine faible ou nulle) ne represente que 2 % de tous les deplacements. L'analyse montre egalement que plus d'un quart de tous les mouvements migratoires ont lieu entre les agglomerations rurales. La majorite des demenagements sont des 'migrations vers l'espace rural' definies ici comme des mouvements entre des municipalites des regions rurales et des petites villes sous influence forte ou moderee. L'analyse conclut donc que la decentralisation metropolitaine est la principale source de migration responsable de la croissance des regions rurales et des petites villes de l'Ontario. Bien que la deconcentration metropolitaine existe, elle ne represente qu'une source migratoire relativement modeste qui profite aux municipalites offrant des amenites naturelles. Les resultats de l'analyse soulignent egalement l'importance des mouvements migratoires en provenance des plus petites agglomerations urbaines (agglomerations de recensement) et l'importance continue de la migration entre les agglomerations rurales. L'analyse des donnees de migration entre 2001 et 2006 permettra de determiner si ces tendances se confirment. Introduction Population decline characterized many of Canada's non-metropolitan municipalities during the latter half of the 20th century. Between 1971 and 2001, for example, the percentage of the population residing in rural areas and small towns declined by about one fifth, to only 20.3% (Mendelson and Bollman 1998; Statistics Canada 2001 a). In fact, during the last census period of the millennium (1996-2001), more than 50% of the country's smallest settlements lost residents (Statistics Canada 2001 a). Despite this general trend, non-metropolitan populations grew in Ontario, Manitoba, and Alberta. The purpose of this paper is to assess the contribution of various types of migration to the growth of rural and small town settlements in the province of Ontario. …
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.003 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".