Bibliographic record
Abstract
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK I. Global Assessment and Outlook Evidence of economic growth in North America, current signs of bottoming out in business activity in Europe and prospects of recovery in Japan suggest that the mini global recession, which started in the second half of 2001, has finally ended. The shock of the September 11 events in the United States resulted in a synchronization of the global business cycle. The three major economic powers - United States, Japan and Germany - experienced negative growth rates in output in the third quarter of last year for the first time in the last 20 years. Growth and inflation disparities in the cyclical positions of the industrial countries are expected to re-emerge during 2002-03. Following their first quarterly contraction in real GDP since 1992 in the third quarter of last year, the United States and Canada returned to positive economic growth in the last quarter of 2001. They have passed their cyclical troughs and are expected to experience below potential growth rates in 2002, followed by potential growth rates in 2003. The recession in the industrial countries of continental Western Europe started in the second quarter of 2001, when zero growth rates were recorded in Germany and Italy, followed by output declines in the third quarter in Germany, Austria and Switzerland. While the North America economies bounced back in the fourth quarter, in the Euro area - the economies of the 12 countries that share the euro - real output shrank for the first time since 1993. Recent signs of recovery appeared in several indicators, strengthening our forecast that the worst of the European economic downturn is over and that a gradual upturn is underway. In Japan, business and consumer indicators suggest that the battered economy is on the verge of recovery. The low point in the Japanese business cycle was reached late last year as real GDP fell by an annual rate of 4.8%, the third consecutive decline in 2001. The current readings of the leading indicators suggest that economic growth will slowly pick up in the spring of this year and accelerate at the end. The recovery of the Japanese economy is expected to develop at a moderate pace with output growth averaging over the consumer horizon below the economy's long-term potential rate. The quarterly performance in the major economic blocs in 2001 means that - for the year as a whole - real GDP grew 1.2% in the United States compared with growth of 1.5% in the Euro area and a 0.5% contraction in Japan. Our central forecast calls for the United States economy to grow at a brisk pace this year, followed by moderate growth in Europe. Japan will be the laggard of the current upswing phase of the global business cycle. The expected disparities in the growth of industrial countries are forecast to have significant effects on inflation rates, employment, current account balances, exchange rates, and consequently, upon the design and implementation of fiscal and monetary policies. Domestic dynamic developments in the mix of consumption and investment, productivity, the role of exports as an engine of growth and the lagging effects of monetary policy are the major sources of the expected strengthening of economic activity in the world economy over the forecast horizon, 2002-03. Our assessment of an ongoing recovery in the industrial countries is based on the following factors: * Inventory adjustment. The bottoming out of corporate inventories will be a significant contributor to projected economic recovery. The global economic slowdown in 2001, combined with a mini recession in the major industrial countries, has provided the inventory correction needed for a recovery in production. In Japan, the index of industrial inventories fell in January to its lowest level since October 1990, suggesting that companies will need to increase production at the slightest upturn in demand. Similarly, in the United States, there was a decline in business inventories of about $40 billion in 2001, compared to an increase of $50 billion in 2000. …
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.012 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".