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Record W347773563

Short Term Market Jitters Defy Bullish Consensus Outlook

2003· article· en· W347773563 on OpenAlex
Jack Malehorn

Why this work is in the frame

A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.

aboutThe title or abstract carries a Canadian signal from the geographic lexicon.
no affNo Canadian affiliation: this work is invisible to an affiliation-only frame.
No Canadian affiliation. An affiliation-only frame, the usual design, would never have seen this work. It is one of the works that make the case for inverting the frame.

Bibliographic record

VenueThe Journal of Business Forecasting Methods & Systems · 2003
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldDecision Sciences
TopicLeadership, Behavior, and Decision-Making Studies
Canadian institutionsnot available
Fundersnot available
KeywordsPersonal consumption expenditures price indexConsumption (sociology)TerrorismConsumer confidence indexEconomicsQuarter (Canadian coin)EconomyFinancial economicsPolitical scienceMacroeconomicsHistoryLawSociology
DOInot available

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

Despite the psychological devastating effects of war, tumultuous and nervous markets, and growing concern over a global virus of unknown effects (SARS), the Consensus remains steadfast in its belief that the economy is posed to perform admirably in the second half of the year and into 2004. Granted, the existence of conditional scenarios is as ubiquitous as hotdogs on opening day in baseball; there does exist fundamental reasons for thinking optimistically. Most forecasts in the Consensus remain essentially unchanged from last quarter's. Real growth is forecast to run at a 2.7% rate. In juxtaposition, Richard DeKaser from National City Corp., explains, subscribe heavily to the view that war-related uncertainties are the principal impediment to superior economic performance. Further, we are still expecting a relatively a brief war, minimal damage to oil supplies, and a better post-war outcome than seems to be generally accepted. If these developments play out in the next month, as we believe, financial markets and economic activity will respond with alacrity. Nicholas Perna from Perna Associates believes, with Iraq is brief with no major complications. In addition, the threat of terrorism is subdued and kept far away from the world's major economies. Doug Duncan from Mortgage Bankers Association adds, is concluded relatively soon and the full Bush Tax Plan is implemented before the August recess. CONSUMER MARKETS Despite consumer confidence being rattled of late, Real Personal Disposable Income and Real Personal Consumption Expenditures are predicted to grow at a healthy 3.9% and 4.0% rate, respectively. Undoubtedly, the public sector plays a prominent role in this outlook. Both aggressive fiscal spending-spurred in part by increased defense spending associated with the conflict in Iraq and the threat of terrorism and an accommodative Monetary Policy will impact the economic outlook in a positive way. When you consider that household expenditures account for roughly $2 of every $3 of economic activity; it is hard to imagine a solid growth scenario without their active participation. And since 9-11, consumers have been anxiously awaiting a reason to celebrate. Total Light Vehicle sales are predicted at a 16.8 million rate in concert with Housing Starts holding their own at a respectable 1.6 million run rate. LABOR MARKETS Job growth and unemployment are called to strengthen as the year unfolds. The Nation's unemployment rate is anticipated to improve slowly during the year, inching down 1 or 2 tenths of a point each quarter. INFLATION War and inflation generally go hand and hand. The Consensus, however, predicts relatively mild price pressures as the year unfolds at a run rate of less than 2%. Probably the greatest threat of inflationary pressures rests with disruptions in the Middle East oil supply chain. Needless to say, this will be a closely watched variable as the war is orchestrated. INDUSTRIAL SECTOR The Industrial Sector exhibits a tremendous sensitivity to the psychology of markets. Still, the Consensus expects the Capacity Utilization rate to continue to improve throughout the year. Real Non-Residential Fixed Investment is predicted to run at a 6. …

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

Full frame distilled prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.056
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.038
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesMetaresearch
Consensus categoriesMetaresearch
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Other design · Consensus signal: none
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.577
Threshold uncertainty score0.976

Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0560.038
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0010.000
Bibliometrics0.0010.002
Science and technology studies0.0010.000
Scholarly communication0.0010.000
Open science0.0020.000
Research integrity0.0000.001
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0000.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.319
GPT teacher head0.438
Teacher spread0.120 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it