Forecasting and electoral context

VOLUME 1: SOCIAL-POLITICAL MODELS Introduction - Kai Arzheimer and Jocelyn Evans Party Systems and Voter Alignments: Cross-national perspectives - Seymour Lipset and Stein Rokkan A Suggested Index of the Association of Social Class and Voting - Robert Alford Religious vs. Linguistic vs. Class Voting: The crucial of comparing Belgium, Canada, South Africa, and Switzerland - Arend Lijphart Intergenerational Class Mobility in Three Western European Societies. England, France and Sweden - Robert Erikson, John Goldthorpe and Lucienne Portocarero Class Mobility and Political Preferences: Individual and contextual effects - Dirk N. De Graaf, Paul Nieuwbeerta and Anthony Heath The Developmental Theory of the Gender Gap: Women's and men's voting behavior in global perspective - Ronald Inglehart and Pippa Norris Political Cleavage: A conceptual and theoretical analysis - Alan Zuckerman A Theory of Critical Elections - V O. Key Political Party Identification and Attitudes Toward Foreign Policy - George Belknap and Angus Campbell The Concept of a Normal Vote - Philip Converse The Transmission of Political Values from Parent to Child - Kent M. Jennings and Richard Niemi The Nature of Belief Systems in Mass Publics - Philip Converse The Systematic Beliefs of the Mass Public: Estimating policy preferences with survey data - John Jackson Stability and Change in 1960. A reinstating election - Philip Converse, Angus Campbell, Warren Miller, and Donald Stokes A Dynamic Simultaneous Equation Model of Electoral Choice - Gregory Markus and Philip Converse An Outline for a Model of Party Choice - Morris Fiorina Partisanship and Voting Behavior, 1952-1996 - Larry Bartels VOLUME 2: COGNITION AND THE VOTER CALCULUS Stability in Competition - Harold Hotelling A Theory of the Calculus of Voting - Williams Riker and Peter Ordeshook The Paradox of not Voting - John Ferejohn and Morris Fiorina Costs of Voting and Nonvoting - Richard Niemi Is Turnout the Paradox that Ate Rational Choice Theory? - Bernard Grofman Spatial Models of Party Competition - Donald Stokes The Neglected Role of the Status Quo in Models of Issue Voting - Bernard Grofman The Measurement of Core Beliefs and Values: The development of balanced socialist / laissez faire and libertarian / authoritarian scales - Anthony Heath, Geoffrey Evans and Jean Martin A Directional Theory of Issue Voting - George Rabinowitz and Stuart Elaine MacDonald Political Leadership and Representation in Western Democracies: A test of three models of voting - Torben Iversen The Impact of a Presidential Debate on Voter Rationality - Alan Abramowitz Issue Ownership in Presidential Elections, with a 1980 Case Study - John Petrocik A New Spatial Theory of Party Competition: Uncertainty, Ideology and policy equilibria viewed comparatively and temporally - Ian Budge Interest vs. Symbolic Politics in Policy Attitudes and Presidential Voting - David Sears, Richard Lau, Tom Tyler and Harris Allen Contrasting Rational and Psychological Analyses of Political Choice - George Quattrone and Amos Tversky Foreign Affairs and Issue Voting: Do presidential candidates waltz before a blind audience? - John Aldrich, John Sullivan and Eugene Borgida Anxiety, Enthusiasm, and the Vote: The motivational underpinnings of learning and involvement during presidential campaigns - George Marcus and Michael MacKuen VOLUME 3: FORECASTING AND ELECTORIAL CONTEXT Nine National Second-order Elections: A systematic framework for the analysis of European election results - Karlheinz Reif and Hermann Schmitt Voter Turnout in the Industrial Democracies During the 1980s - Robert Jackman and Ross Miller Individual and Systemic Influences on Turnout: Who votes? - Jan Leighley and Jonathan Nagler What Voters Teach us about Europe-wide Elections: what Europe-wide elections teach us about voters - Cees van der Eijk, Mark Franklin and Michael Marsh Presidential Popularity from Truman to Johnson - John Muelle Short-term Fluctuations in US voting Behaviour, 1896-1964 - Gerald Kramer The Vp-function - A Survey of the Literature on Vote and Popularity Functions after 25 Years - Peter Nannestad and Martin Paldam Who's the Chef? Economic voting under a dual executive - Michael Lewis-Beck Emotional Reactions to the Economy: I'm mad as hell and I'm not going to take it anymore - Pamela Conover and Stanley Feldman A Cross-national Analysis of Economic Voting: Taking account of the political context - Bingham G. Powell and Guy Whitten The Real Economy and the Perceived Economy in Popularity Functions: How much do voters need to know? A study of British data, 1974-97 - David Sanders The Political Conditioning of Economic Perceptions - Geoffrey Evans and Robert Andersen Why are American Presidential Election Campaigns Polls so Variable when Votes are so Predictable - Andrew Gelman and Gary King Altering the Foundations of Support for the President through Priming - Jon Krosnick and Donald Kinder Does Attack Advertising Demobilize the Electorate - Stephen Ansolabehere, Shanto Iyengar, Adam Simon and Nicholas Valentino Messages Received: The political impact of media exposure - Larry Bartels Political Context and Attitude Change - Michael MacKuen and Courtney Brown VOLUME 4: DEBATES AND METHODOLOGY The Veil of Insignificance - Harmut Kliemt Attitudes and Voting Behaviour: An application of the theory of reasoned action - Martin Fishbein and Icek Ajzen Secular Realignment and the Party System - O. V. Key The Silent Revolution in Europe: Intergenerational change in post-industrial societies - Ronald Inglehart Cognitive Mobilization and Partisan Dealignment in Advanced Industrial Democracies - Russell Dalton Plus ca Change... The new Cps Election Study Panel - Philip Converse and Gregory Markus Issue Evolution, Population Replacement and Normal Partisan Change - Edward Carmines and James Stimson The Dynamics of Aggregate Partisanship - Janet Box-Steffensmeier and Renee Smith Ideological Realignment in the US Electorate - Alan Abramowitz and Kyle Saunders Recall Accuracy and its Determinants - Cees van der Eijk and Broer Niemoller Design Issue in Electoral Research: Taking care of (core) business - Cees van der Eijk It's not Like that Round here: Region, economic evaluations and voting at the 1992 British general election - Charles Pattie and Ron Johnston The Effects of Canvassing, Telephone Calls, and Direct Mail on Voter Turnout: a field experiment - Alan Gerber and Donald Green Ecological Correlations and the Behavior of Individuals - William Robinson The Economic Crisis of the 1930s and the Nazi Vote - Jurgen Falter and Reinhard Zintl Response Latency Versus Certainty as Indexes of the Strength of Voting Intentions in a Cati Survey - John Bassili A New approach for Modelling Strategic Voting in Multiparty Elections - Michael Alvarez and Jonathan Nagler

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