Course and Outcome after the First Manic Episode in Patients with Bipolar Disorder: Prospective 12-Month Data from the Systematic Treatment Optimization Program for Early Mania Project
Bibliographic record
Abstract
OBJECTIVE: To describe clinical characteristics, course, and outcome during a 1-year period after the first manic episode in patients with bipolar disorder (BD). METHODS: This paper describes the project design, demographics, clinical outcomes, and predictors at 6 months to 1 year of follow-up of the first 53 recruited subjects with first-episode mania from the Systematic Treatment Optimization Program for Early Mania. RESULTS: Survival analysis for recurrence of mood episodes showed that 46.7% of patients survived without a mood episode during 1-year of follow-up, and the mean time-to-mood event was 7.9 months. Earlier age of onset was the only variable that significantly predicted recurrence of mood episodes. When examined separately, the survival rates were 76% for a manic episode and 58.7% for a depressive episode. CONCLUSION: These results suggest that recurrences are common after the first manic episode with more than one-half of the patients experiencing a mood event within 12 months. Aggressive treatment strategies aimed at preventing depressive episodes are needed in the management of early course BD.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".