Integrating COVID-19 health risks into crowding costs for transit schedule planning
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The public transport sector worldwide experienced the worst impact in recent history, in terms of ridership loss, due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The pandemic negatively affected passengers' perceptions of public transport and is likely to make a lasting impact on ridership, trip patterns, and modal share. Without any supportive changes to transit operations, ridership is likely to decline. This study explores the setting of frequencies in transit lines and proposes a two-part methodology that addresses the changing perceptions of users, especially in a health-related context. The first part develops a mathematical model that expresses the pre-COVID-19 cost of passenger crowding as an integral part of user costs to determine the optimal headway that considers the trade-offs between user and operator costs. A continuum approximation for the demand of the bus line has been used in the derivation. The second part extends the developed model to include both the costs of the health risks associated with the COVID-19 pandemic and crowding. The developed models will help transit planners and operators to plan and adapt operations to changing health risks during the pandemic and post-pandemic. Several numerical examples are provided to describe the uses and applications of the analytical models using information obtained from the literature.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.006 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.004 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".