Predicting the Water Content of Interstellar Objects from Galactic Star Formation Histories
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Planetesimals inevitably bear the signatures of their natal environment, preserving in their composition a record of the metallicity of their system’s original gas and dust, albeit one altered by the formation processes. When planetesimals are dispersed from their system of origin, this record is carried with them. As each star is likely to contribute at least 1012 interstellar objects (ISOs), the Galaxy’s drifting population of ISOs provides an overview of the properties of its stellar population through time. Using the EAGLE cosmological simulations and models of protoplanetary formation, our modeling predicts an ISO population with a bimodal distribution in their water mass fraction: objects formed in low-metallicity, typically older, systems have a higher water fraction than their counterparts formed in high-metallicity protoplanetary disks, and these water-rich objects comprise the majority of the population. Both detected ISOs seem to belong to the lower water fraction population; these results suggest they come from recently formed systems. We show that the population of ISOs in galaxies with different star formation histories will have different proportions of objects with high and low water fractions. This work suggests that it is possible that the upcoming Vera C. Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time will detect a large enough population of ISOs to place useful constraints on models of protoplanetary disks, as well as galactic structure and evolution.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".