Complex 3D Migration and Delayed Triggering of Hydraulic Fracturing‐Induced Seismicity: A Case Study Near Fox Creek, Alberta
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Earthquakes resulting from hydraulic fracturing (HF) can have delayed triggering relative to injection commencement over a varied range of time scales, with the majority of M ≥ 4 mainshocks occurring near/after well completion. This poses serious challenges for risk mitigation and hazard assessment. Here, we document a high‐resolution, three‐dimensional source migration process with delayed mainshock triggering that is controlled by local hydrogeological conditions near Fox Creek, Alberta, Canada. Our results reveal that poroelastic effects might contribute to induced seismicity, but are probably insufficient to activate a large fault segment not critically stressed. The rapid pore‐pressure build‐up from HF can be very localized and capable of producing large, felt earthquakes if adequate hydrological paths exist. We interpret the delayed triggering as a manifestation of pore‐pressure build‐up along pre‐existing faults needed to facilitate seismic failure. Our findings can explain why so few injection operations are seismogenic.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".