Multivariate online regression analysis with heterogeneous streaming data
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
New data collection and storage technologies have given rise to a new field of streaming data analytics, called real‐time statistical methodology for online data analyses. Most existing online learning methods are based on homogeneity assumptions, which require the samples in a sequence to be independent and identically distributed. However, inter‐data batch correlation and dynamically evolving batch‐specific effects are among the key defining features of real‐world streaming data such as electronic health records and mobile health data. This article is built under a state‐space mixed model framework in which the observed data stream is driven by a latent state process that follows a Markov process. In this setting, online maximum likelihood estimation is made challenging by high‐dimensional integrals and complex covariance structures. In this article, we develop a real‐time Kalman‐filter‐based regression analysis method that updates both point estimates and their standard errors for fixed population average effects while adjusting for dynamic hidden effects. Both theoretical justification and numerical experiments demonstrate that our proposed online method has statistical properties similar to those of its offline counterpart and enjoys great computational efficiency. We also apply this method to analyze an electronic health record dataset.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it