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Record W4200567612 · doi:10.3917/futur.446.0059

Géopolitique de la mer : les enjeux des routes arctiques

2021· article· fr· W4200567612 on OpenAlex
Hervé Baudu, Frédéric Moncany de Saint-Aignan

Why this work is in the frame

A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.

aboutThe title or abstract carries a Canadian signal from the geographic lexicon.
no affNo Canadian affiliation: this work is invisible to an affiliation-only frame.
No Canadian affiliation. An affiliation-only frame, the usual design, would never have seen this work. It is one of the works that make the case for inverting the frame.

Bibliographic record

VenueFuturibles · 2021
Typearticle
Languagefr
FieldSocial Sciences
TopicArctic and Russian Policy Studies
Canadian institutionsnot available
Fundersnot available
KeywordsPolitical scienceHumanitiesArt

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

Poursuivant notre série consacrée à la mer et aux océans, cet article d’Hervé Baudu et Frédéric Moncany de Saint-Aignan se penche sur une région dont l’intérêt stratégique a été considérablement renforcé par les effets observés et annoncés du changement climatique. Il s’agit de l’espace arctique, situé au pôle Nord de notre planète, concernant au premier rang les cinq pays bordant l’océan Arctique (Canada, Danemark, États-Unis, Norvège et Russie), mais suscitant bien d’autres convoitises depuis que la fonte des glaces libère de nouvelles routes maritimes durant des périodes plus longues dans l’année. Si l’on ajoute à cela les réserves minières qui s’y trouvent (pétrole et gaz en particulier), les conditions pourraient être réunies, entend-on parfois, pour qu’émergent de nouvelles tensions entre les puissances concernées. Comme le montre cet article, certes le changement climatique modifie effectivement la donne dans la région Arctique, ouvrant de nouvelles opportunités stratégiques et commerciales, certes la Russie tend à renforcer ses moyens militaires sur place, et certes la Chine, plus éloignée, s’y intéresse fortement, suscitant l’inquiétude des États-Unis. Mais le droit international et les outils de gouvernance mis en place entre les pays concernés ont fait leurs preuves jusqu’ici. Qu’en sera-t-il à l’avenir ? S.D.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

Full frame distilled prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.001
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.001
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesMeta-epidemiology (narrow), Science and technology studies, Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)
Consensus categoriesScience and technology studies
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Theoretical or conceptual · Consensus signal: none
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: none
Teacher disagreement score0.722
Threshold uncertainty score1.000

Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0010.001
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.000
Bibliometrics0.0000.000
Science and technology studies0.0020.005
Scholarly communication0.0000.000
Open science0.0000.000
Research integrity0.0000.000
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0020.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.042
GPT teacher head0.355
Teacher spread0.313 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it