Weight Change and Incident Distal Colorectal Adenoma Risk in the PLCO Cancer Screening Trial
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Background Although obesity is a known risk factor, the impact of weight change on colorectal adenoma risk is less clear and could have important implications in disease prevention. We prospectively evaluated weight change in adulthood and incident colorectal adenoma. Methods We assessed weight change during early-late (age 20 years to baseline, ie, ages 55-74 years), early-middle (20-50 years), and middle-late (50 years-baseline) adulthood using self-reported weight data in relation to incident distal adenoma in the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial (cases = 1053; controls = 16 576). For each period, we defined stable weight as greater than −0.5 kg to less than or equal to 1 kg/5 years, weight loss as less than or equal to −0.5 kg/5 years, and weight gain as greater than 1-2, greater than 2-3, or greater than 3 kg/5 years. We estimated odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) using logistic regression; all tests were 2-sided. Results Compared with stable weight, weight loss during early-late adulthood was associated with reduced adenoma risk (OR = 0.54, 95% CI = 0.34 to 0.86), particularly among those who were overweight or obese at age 20 years (OR = 0.39, 95% CI = 0.18 to 0.84). Results were similar for early-middle adulthood but less pronounced for middle-late adulthood. Weight gain greater than 3 kg/5 years during early-late adulthood was associated with increased risk (OR = 1.30, 95% CI = 1.07 to 1.58, Ptrend < .001). Findings appeared stronger among men (OR for >3 kg/5 years = 1.41, 95% CI = 1.11 to 1.80) than women (OR = 1.09, 95% CI = 0.79 to 1.50, Pinteraction = .21). Conclusions Weight loss in adulthood was associated with reduced adenoma risk, particularly for those who were overweight or obese, whereas weight gain greater than 3 kg/5 years increased risk. Findings underscore the importance of healthy weight maintenance throughout adulthood in preventing colorectal adenoma.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".