COVID-19 will crimp copper demand, dampening the price
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Subject Copper market dynamics. Significance The copper price stagnated last year under the shadow of US-China trade frictions, which masked flat production and a relatively tight market balance; it rose by 5.9% in the final quarter on expectations of a US-China trade truce. This year, the price has fallen by around 20% and 10% of output is suspended thanks to COVID-19 lockdowns. Consumption is sharply curtailed and previously low inventories have been quickly replenished. The copper to gold ratio -- a litmus test of global fears about economic growth -- is close to the lows last seen in the 2008-09 global financial crisis. Impacts China has halved its tariffs on US metals and mineral imports, including copper cathodes; more trade cost-cutting moves may come globally. Opposition to mergers and acquisitions may persist; Canada’s First Quantum is stopping China’s Jiangxi Copper buying more of the firm. Governments will continue to try and counter local opposition to mine projects; Peru’s government has set up a group to promote projects.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.005 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.005 | 0.003 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Research integrity | 0.003 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.166 | 0.039 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".