Populist Support, Institutional Trust, and Gender: The Impact of Foreign-Imposed Austerity During the European Debt Crisis
Bibliographic record
Abstract
What explains the recent rise of populism in Europe? We argue that economic shocks benefit populists when foreign interests influence establishment politicians and lead voters to reject the establishment response. Using a difference-in-differences design with European Social Survey data, we test this theory by comparing countries granted implicitly or explicitly conditional loans from the EU and IMF to other countries, before and after the European sovereign debt crisis. Since recent studies suggest austerity impacted women more, we also explore heterogeneity in treatment effects by gender. Supporting our theory, we find conditionality reduced institutional trust and increased populist support. Conditionality did not, however, lead to larger declines in trust or greater increases in populist support for women than for men. These results suggest that, though economic theories of voting do explain part of the recent rise in populism, men and women are not equally persuaded by economic reasons to support populists.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; both teacher heads agree on what is shown here.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".