Belarus’s oscillating foreign policy toward the EU: from engagement to retrenchment (1994–2021)
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Belarusian foreign policy toward the EU has been variable under President Aliaksandr Lukashenka. It has oscillated between periods of engagement, aimed at improving/deepening relations with the bloc, and periods of retrenchment in response to EU sanctions for violations of human rights. In this article the author applies Elena Gnedina’s concept of “multi-vector” foreign policy to explain attempts to improve relations with the EU from 2007 to 2010 and from 2013 to 2020. The author analyzes these attempts by focusing on actors, objectives, and instruments. Changes in these variables help us periodize Belarusian “multi-vector” foreign policy and discern its implicit meanings, with the ultimate goals of (1) understanding what motivated Belarusian political elites to change their foreign policy toward the EU, and (2) building an analytical framework that weighs different institutional constraints on the formulation of foreign policy toward the EU.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it