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Record W4205849319 · doi:10.1016/j.cegh.2022.100961

The new COVID-19 omicron variant: Africa must watch its spread!

2022· article· en· W4205849319 on OpenAlexaboutno aff
Shuaibu Saidu Musa, Dawa Gyeltshen, Emery Manirambona, Dauda Ayuba, Don Eliseo Lucero‐Prisno

Bibliographic record

VenueClinical Epidemiology and Global Health · 2022
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldMedicine
TopicSARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 Research
Canadian institutionsnot available
Fundersnot available
KeywordsCoronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)VirologyCoronavirus2019-20 coronavirus outbreakVirusGenetic variantsDiseaseMedicineBiologyGeneGeneticsOutbreakInfectious disease (medical specialty)GenotypePathology

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

The world is experiencing the surge of a new corona virus disease 2019 variant (COVID-19), known as Omicron. The Omicron variant has 32 mutations in its spike protein. Preliminary evidence suggests that there is an increased risk of re-infection, compared to other variants of concern. On November 24, 2021, South Africa reported the identification of a new severe acute respiratory syndrome corona virus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variant, B.1.1.529, to the World Health Organization (WHO),1CDC. Science brief: omicron (B.1.1.529) variant.https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/science/science-briefs/scientific-brief-omicron variant.htmlDate accessed: December 5, 2021Google Scholar and on November 26, 2021, WHO named the variant ‘Omicron’ and classified it as a variant of concern (VOC). A virus is classified as a VOC if there is evidence of an increase in transmissibility, more severe disease, significant reduction in neutralisation by antibodies generated during previous infection or vaccination, reduced effectiveness of treatments or vaccines, or failures in diagnostic detection.2CDC. SARS-CoV-2 variant classifications and definitions.https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/variants/variant-classifications.htmlDate accessed: December 17, 2021Google Scholar The ability of the VOC to pose a significant and imminent risk to public health across regions differentiates it from other variant classifications, such as, variant being monitored, variant of interest, and variant of high consequence.2CDC. SARS-CoV-2 variant classifications and definitions.https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/variants/variant-classifications.htmlDate accessed: December 17, 2021Google Scholar The differences in the variant classifications are based on the risk the variant pose to public health. A variant being monitored does not pose a significant and imminent risk to public health, while a variant of interest is a variant which evidence indicates that it is the cause of an increased proportion of cases or unique outbreak clusters, and a variant of high consequence is a variant that causes severe clinical disease and increased hospitalisations.2CDC. SARS-CoV-2 variant classifications and definitions.https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/variants/variant-classifications.htmlDate accessed: December 17, 2021Google Scholar The new COVID-19 Omicron variant was first detected in specimens from Botswana on November 11, 2021 and from South Africa on November 14, 2021.1CDC. Science brief: omicron (B.1.1.529) variant.https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/science/science-briefs/scientific-brief-omicron variant.htmlDate accessed: December 5, 2021Google Scholar The WHO stated that the Omicron variant has been detected in 57 countries and this number is expected to continue growing. Early data suggests that the strain is more contagious than the delta variant,3WHO says Covid omicron variant detected in 38 countries, early data suggests it's more contagious than delta.https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/03/who-says-omicron-covid-variant-has-spread-to-38-countries.htmlDate accessed: December 5, 2021Google Scholar with mild or no symptoms presented by infected individuals. As the Omicron variant is yet to be fully understood, researchers in South Africa and around the world continue to conduct research in order to have an insight to the variant and share timely data.4WHO. Update on omicron.https://www.who.int/news/item/28-11-2021-update-on-omicronDate accessed: December 6, 2021Google Scholar On December 1, 2021, the first case attributed to Omicron was reported in the United States in a person who returned from travel to South Africa.1CDC. Science brief: omicron (B.1.1.529) variant.https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/science/science-briefs/scientific-brief-omicron variant.htmlDate accessed: December 5, 2021Google Scholar The Omicron variant has also been detected in travel-related cases in several European countries, as well as Australia, Brazil, Canada, Hong Kong, Israel, Japan and Nigeria.1CDC. Science brief: omicron (B.1.1.529) variant.https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/science/science-briefs/scientific-brief-omicron variant.htmlDate accessed: December 5, 2021Google Scholar Based on WHO data, in Africa, the Omicron variant has been detected in four countries, with Ghana and Nigeria becoming the first West African countries, and that, Botswana and South Africa have reported 19 and 172 Omicron variant cases, respectively. Owing to this, there have been reports of an increased number of COVID-19 related hospitalisations and death in South Africa. Although vaccination has been the most effective strategy towards fighting the COVID-19 pandemic, the vaccination rate is still low in Africa due to the huge disparities in access to COVID-19 vaccines between the high and the low income countries. Only five African countries, less than 10% of Africa's 54 nations, are projected to hit the target of fully vaccinating 40% of their people by the end of the year 2021, compared to high-income countries where 70% of them have already vaccinated more than 40% of their people.5WHO. Less than 10% of African countries to hit key COVID-19 vaccination goal.https://www.afro.who.int/news/less-10-african-countries-hit-key-covid-19-vaccination-goalDate accessed: December 5, 2021Google Scholar Limited access to crucial commodities such as syringes may contribute to the slow rollout of COVID-19 vaccines in Africa.5WHO. Less than 10% of African countries to hit key COVID-19 vaccination goal.https://www.afro.who.int/news/less-10-african-countries-hit-key-covid-19-vaccination-goalDate accessed: December 5, 2021Google Scholar The rise in number of the Omicron variant cases in Botswana, South Africa and some West African countries including Nigeria and Ghana could spell doom for the African health system, where less than 10% of its population is vaccinated against the COVID-19.5WHO. Less than 10% of African countries to hit key COVID-19 vaccination goal.https://www.afro.who.int/news/less-10-african-countries-hit-key-covid-19-vaccination-goalDate accessed: December 5, 2021Google Scholar Almost all the African countries are trading with the countries with reported cases of the Omicron variant, especially Nigeria, the most populous country and the economic giant of the continent. This will unequivocally facilitate the spread of the new COVID-19 Omicron variant across Africa, mostly through international trading, further wreaking havoc on its economy and health system, which many of the African countries are struggling to rebuild. Owing to this, Africa must therefore monitor the spread of the new COVID-19 Omicron variant. It is therefore, crucial for Africa to scale up the COVID-19 preventive measures, particularly screening travelers at border entry points. WHO and other relevant international agencies should help support and accelerate the COVID-19 vaccine rollout in Africa while African countries should ensure that their most vulnerable population are vaccinated. Shuaibu Saidu Musa and Don Eliseo Lucero-Prisno III conceived the idea. Shuaibu Saidu Musa, Dawa Gyeltshen, Emery Manirambona, and Dauda Ayuba assisted in writing and drafting the manuscript. Don Eliseo Lucero-PrisnoIII proofread the manuscript with important intellectual additions. All authors read and approved the final manuscript. This research did not receive any specific grant from funding agencies in the public, commercial, or not-for- profit sectors.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Direct model labels (unvalidated)

Per-model category and study-design labels from the labeling rounds. They are machine output, unvalidated, and the disagreement between models ships as data. No study design here is MEDLINE-validated yet.

Model armCategoriesStudy designConfidence
gemmano category
Domain: not available · Genre: Commentary
About the Canadian research system: no · About a Canadian topic: no
Not applicablelow
gptno category
Domain: not available · Genre: Commentary
About the Canadian research system: no · About a Canadian topic: no
Not applicablehigh
models agreeAgreement compares identical category sets and study designs across arms.

Full frame distilled prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.017
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.024
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesMetaresearch
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Not applicable · Consensus signal: Not applicable
GenreCandidate signal: Commentary · Consensus signal: Commentary
Teacher disagreement score0.232
Threshold uncertainty score0.984

Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0170.024
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0010.000
Bibliometrics0.0000.000
Science and technology studies0.0010.001
Scholarly communication0.0000.000
Open science0.0000.001
Research integrity0.0000.001
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0000.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.239
GPT teacher head0.537
Teacher spread0.297 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Labeled directly by 2 models reading the full record.

The models applied no category: nothing in the taxonomy fit this work.
Study designNot applicable
Domainnot available
GenreCommentary

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

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Citations7
Published2022
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes

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