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Estimation of the global prevalence of dementia in 2019 and forecasted prevalence in 2050: an analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
Emma Nichols, Jaimie D Steinmetz, Kai Fukutaki, Julian Chalek, Foad Abd-Allah, Amir Abdoli, Ahmed Abualhasan, Eman Abu‐Gharbieh, Tayyaba Akram, Hanadi Al Hamad, Fares Alahdab, Fahad Alanezi, Vahid Alipour, Sami Almustanyir, Hubert Amu, Iman Ansari, Jalal Arabloo, Tahira Ashraf, Thomas Astell‐Burt, Getinet Ayano, José Luís Ayuso‐Mateos, Atif Amin Baig, Anthony Barnett, Amadou Barrow, Bernhard T. Baune, Yannick Béjot, Woldesellassie Bezabhe, Yihienew Mequanint Bezabih, Akshaya Srikanth Bhagavathula, Sonu Bhaskar, Krittika Bhattacharyya, Ali Bijani, Atanu Biswas, Srinivasa Rao Bolla, Archith Boloor, Carol Brayne, Hermann Brenner, Katrin Burkart, Richard A. Burns, Luis Alberto Cámera, Chao Cao, Félix Carvalho, Luís Fernando Silva Castro-de-Araujo, Ferrán Catalá-López, Ester Cerin, Prachi P. Chavan, Nicolas Cherbuin, Dinh‐Toi Chu, Vera Marisa Costa, Rosa A S Couto, Omid Dadras, Xiaochen Dai, Lalit Dandona, Rakhi Dandona, Vanessa De la Cruz‐Góngora, Deepak Dhamnetiya, Diana Dias da Silva, Daniel Díaz, Abdel Douiri, David Edvardsson, Michael Ekholuenetale, Iman El Sayed, Shaimaa I El-Jaafary, Khalil Eskandari, Sharareh Eskandarieh, Saman Esmaeilnejad, Jawad Fares, André Faro, Umar Farooque, Valery L. Feigin, Xiaoqi Feng, Seyed‐Mohammad Fereshtehnejad, Eduarda Fernandes, Pietro Ferrara, Irina Filip, Howard Fillit, Florian Fischer, Shilpa Gaidhane, Lucia Galluzzo, Ahmad Ghashghaee, Nermin Ghith, Alessandro Gialluisi, Syed Amir Gilani, Ionela-Roxana Glăvan, E. V. Gnedovskaya, Mahaveer Golechha, Veer Bala Gupta, Vivek Gupta, Mohammad Rifat Haider, Brian J. Hall, Samer Hamidi, Asif Hanif, Graeme J. Hankey, Shafiul Haque, Risky Kusuma Hartono, Ahmed I Hasaballah, M. Tasdik Hasan, Amr Hassan, Simon I Hay, Khezar Hayat, Mohamed Hegazy, Golnaz Heidari, Reza Heidari‐Soureshjani, Claudiu Herţeliu, Mowafa Househ, Rabia Hussain, Bing‐Fang Hwang, Licia Iacoviello, Ivo Iavicoli, Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi, Irena Ilić, Milena Ilić, Seyed Sina Naghibi Irvani, Hiroyasu Iso, Masao Iwagami, Roxana Jabbarinejad, Louis Jacob, Vardhmaan Jain, Sathish Kumar Jayapal, Ranil Jayawardena, Ravi Prakash Jha, Jost B. Jonas, Nitin Joseph, Amit Kandel, Himal Kandel, André Karch, Ayele Semachew Kasa, Gizat M. Kassie, Pedram Keshavarz, Moien AB Khan, Mahalaqua Nazli Khatib, Tawfik Khoja, Jagdish Khubchandani, Min Seo Kim, Yun Jin Kim, Adnan Kısa, Sezer Kısa, Mika Kivimäki, Walter J. Koroshetz, Ai Koyanagi, G Anil Kumar, Manasi Kumar, Hassan Mehmood Lak, Matilde Leonardi, Bingyu Li, Stephen S Lim, Xuefeng Liu, Yuewei Liu, Giancarlo Logroscino, Stefan Lorkowski, Giancarlo Lucchetti, Ricardo Lutzky Saute, Francesca Giulia Magnani, Ahmad Azam Malik, João Massano, Man Mohan Mehndiratta, Ritesh G. Menezes, Atte Meretoja, Bahram Mohajer, Norlinah Mohamed Ibrahim, Yousef Mohammad, Arif Ahmed Mohammed, Ali H. Mokdad, Stefania Mondello, Mohammad Ali Moni, Md. Moniruzzaman, Tilahun Belete Mossie, Gabriele Nagel, Muhammad Naveed, Vinod C Nayak, Sandhya Neupane Kandel, Trang Huyen Nguyen, Bogdan Oancea, Nikita Otstavnov, Stanislav S Otstavnov, Mayowa Owolabi, Songhomitra Panda‐Jonas, Fatemeh Pashazadeh Kan, Maja Pasovic, Urvish Patel, Mona Pathak, Mário Fernando Prieto Peres, Arokiasamy Perianayagam, Carrie B Peterson, Michael Phillips, Marina Pinheiro, М. А. Пирадов, Constance Dimity Pond, Michele Potashman, Faheem Hyder Pottoo, Sergio I. Prada, Amir Radfar, Alberto Raggi, Fakher Rahim, Mosiur Rahman, Pradhum Ram, Priyanga Ranasinghe, David Laith Rawaf, Salman Rawaf, Nima Rezaei, Aziz Rezapour, Stephen R. Robinson, Michele Romoli, Gholamreza Roshandel, Ramesh Sahathevan, Amirhossein Sahebkar, Mohammad Ali Sahraian, Brijesh Sathian, Davide Sattin, Monika Sawhney, Mete Şaylan, Silvia Schiavolin, Allen Seylani, Feng Sha, Masood Ali Shaikh, Mohammed Shannawaz, Jeevan K. Shetty, Mika Shigematsu, Jae Il Shin, Rahman Shiri, Diego Augusto Santos Silva, João Pedro Silva, Renata Silva, Jasvinder A. Singh, Valentin Yurievich Skryabin, Anna Aleksandrovna Skryabina, Amanda Smith, Sergey Soshnikov, Emma Elizabeth Spurlock, Dan J. Stein, Jing Sun, Rafael Tabarés‐Seisdedos, Bhaskar Thakur, Binod Timalsina, Marcos Roberto Tovani‐Palone, Bach Xuan Tran, Gebiyaw Wudie Tsegaye, Sahel Valadan Tahbaz, Pascual Valdéz, Narayanaswamy Venketasubramanian, Vasily Vlassov, Giang Thu Vu, Linh Gia Vu, Yuan‐Pang Wang, Anders Wimo, Andrea Sylvia Winkler, Lalit Yadav, Seyed Hossein Yahyazadeh Jabbari, Kazumasa Yamagishi, Lin Yang, Yuichiro Yano, Naohiro Yonemoto, Chuanhua Yu, Ismaeel Yunusa, Siddhesh Zadey, Михаил Сергеевич Застрожин, Anasthasia Zastrozhina, Zhi-Jiang Zhang, Christopher J L Murray, Theo Vos
Bibliographic record
VenueThe Lancet Public Health · 2022
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldMedicine
TopicDementia and Cognitive Impairment Research
Canadian institutionsnot available
FundersFogarty International CenterNational Institute on AgingGuy's and St Thomas' NHS Foundation TrustAustralian Research CouncilEconomic and Social Research CouncilUniversité de NantesManchester Biomedical Research CentreUniversity at BuffaloApplied Molecular Biosciences UnitNovo Nordisk FondenBill and Melinda Gates FoundationFundação para a Ciência e a TecnologiaEU Joint Programme – Neurodegenerative Disease ResearchFondazione I.R.C.C.S. Istituto Neurologico Carlo BestaUniversity of TasmaniaUniversidade do PortoNazarbayev UniversityWellcome TrustMinistério da Ciência, Tecnologia e Ensino SuperiorUnited Arab Emirates UniversityRoyal College of PhysiciansAlzheimer’s Research UKInstitute for Health Metrics and EvaluationAutoritatea Natională pentru Cercetare StiintificăBabol University of Medical SciencesNational Health and Medical Research CouncilCoordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível SuperiorUniversity of CalcuttaMedical Research CouncilIndian Council of Medical ResearchDepartment of Biotechnology, Ministry of Science and Technology, IndiaNational Institute for Health Research Applied Research Collaboration WestKing's College Hospital NHS Foundation TrustBundesministerium für Bildung und ForschungUniverzita Karlova v PrazeUniversité de BourgogneNational Institute for Health and Care ResearchMerck Sharp and DohmeKing's College LondonBahir Dar UniversityJazan UniversityDeutsches KrebsforschungszentrumWalailak UniversityMinistero della SaluteAlzheimer's SocietyWorld Health OrganizationPublic Health Foundation of IndiaDirectorate for Biological SciencesWashington University in St. LouisLaboratório Associado para a Química VerdeOttawa Hospital Research Institute
KeywordsDementiaEstimationDiseaseBurden of diseaseMedicineEnvironmental healthGerontologyEconomicsInternal medicine
Abstract
OpenAlex records an abstract for this work, but it could not be fetched just now.
How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
metaresearch head score (Codex)0.012
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.014
Version: metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061cValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Meta-analysis · Consensus signal: none
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.065
Threshold uncertainty score0.130
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.012 | 0.014 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.005 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
Opus teacher head0.056
GPT teacher head0.391
Teacher spread0.335 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation status
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
The models applied no category: nothing in the taxonomy fit this work.
Study designMeta-analysis
Domainnot available
GenreEmpirical
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".
Quick stats
Citations5,143
Published2022
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes