Low Heat Availability Could Limit the Potential Spread of the Emerald Ash Borer to Northern Europe (Prognosis Based on Growing Degree Days per Year)
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Emerald ash borer Agrilus planipennis (Coleoptera: Buprestidae) is one of 20 priority quarantine pests of the European Union. It is native to Asia and is established in the USA, Canada, European Russia, and Ukraine. We made the first prognosis of the potential range of A. planipennis in Europe based on heat availability. Mean annual growing degree days base 10 °C (AGDD10) was calculated for each grid square (0.25° × 0.25° latitude x longitude degrees) on the Earth’s surface. Minimal AGDD10 recorded in the grid squares currently occupied by A. planipennis was 714° in Asia, 705° in North America, and 711° in European Russia. Agrilus planipennis has never been recorded in localities with AGDD10 below 700°. If the phenotypic plasticity would not allow this species to overcome this threshold, cold regions of Europe would probably not be invaded by A. planipennis. Thus, Fraxinus excelsior could potentially escape from A. planipennis in some regions of Norway, Sweden, Finland, Ireland, and Great Britain.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.004 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it