Low Heat Availability Could Limit the Potential Spread of the Emerald Ash Borer to Northern Europe (Prognosis Based on Growing Degree Days per Year)
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Emerald ash borer Agrilus planipennis (Coleoptera: Buprestidae) is one of 20 priority quarantine pests of the European Union. It is native to Asia and is established in the USA, Canada, European Russia, and Ukraine. We made the first prognosis of the potential range of A. planipennis in Europe based on heat availability. Mean annual growing degree days base 10 °C (AGDD10) was calculated for each grid square (0.25° × 0.25° latitude x longitude degrees) on the Earth’s surface. Minimal AGDD10 recorded in the grid squares currently occupied by A. planipennis was 714° in Asia, 705° in North America, and 711° in European Russia. Agrilus planipennis has never been recorded in localities with AGDD10 below 700°. If the phenotypic plasticity would not allow this species to overcome this threshold, cold regions of Europe would probably not be invaded by A. planipennis. Thus, Fraxinus excelsior could potentially escape from A. planipennis in some regions of Norway, Sweden, Finland, Ireland, and Great Britain.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".