Predator-prey interactions in a warming world: the critical role of cold tolerance
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Thermal tolerance mismatch within predator-prey systems may have pro-found effects on species population abundances and geographical distributions. To examine the generalized responses of a predator-prey system to climate change, we construct a biologically detailed stage-structured population dynamic model of interactions between ladybird beetles and aphids. We explore the model’s dynamics across the entire feasible parameter space of mean temperature and seasonality. Within this space, we explore different scenarios of predator and prey thermal tolerance mismatch to gain insight into how these thermal sensitivities affect the interacting species’ responses to climatic change. Our results indicate a predator’s cold tolerance has a larger effect on prey abundance than its heat tolerance. Mismatches between the predator’s and prey’s thermal tolerances also affect the species’ response to climate change. We identify three common patterns of species abundance across the feasible parameter space that relate to the type of thermal tolerance mismatches. Our study highlights the importance of understanding the complex interplay between climate change and species interactions.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".