A Review of Bayesian Hypothesis Testing and Its Practical Implementations
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
We discuss hypothesis testing and compare different theories in light of observed or experimental data as fundamental endeavors in the sciences. Issues associated with the p-value approach and null hypothesis significance testing are reviewed, and the Bayesian alternative based on the Bayes factor is introduced, along with a review of computational methods and sensitivity related to prior distributions. We demonstrate how Bayesian testing can be practically implemented in several examples, such as the t-test, two-sample comparisons, linear mixed models, and Poisson mixed models by using existing software. Caveats and potential problems associated with Bayesian testing are also discussed. We aim to inform researchers in the many fields where Bayesian testing is not in common use of a well-developed alternative to null hypothesis significance testing and to demonstrate its standard implementation.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it