P.068 Discrepancy between post-treatment infarct volume and 90-day outcome in ischemic stroke: A validation study in the ESCAPE-NA1 randomized controlled trial
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Background: Some patients do poorly despite small infarcts after endovascular therapy(EVT) whilst others with large infarcts do well. We validated exploratory findings from the ESCAPE trial regarding factors associated with such discrepancies, in the ESCAPE-NA1 trial(NCT02930018). Methods: We identified “discrepant cases” with modified Rankin Scale(mRS)≥3 despite small follow-up infarct volume(FIV≤25th-percentile) on 24-hour CT/MRI or mRS≤2 despite large FIV(volume≥75th-percentile). We compared area-under-the-curve(AUC) of pre-specified logistic models containing (a)pre-treatment factors(age/cancer/vascular risk-factors) and (b)treatment-related/post-treatment factors(serious adverse events/SAEs) in identifying small-FIV/mRS≥3 and large-FIV/mRS≤2, with stepwise regression-derived models. Results: Among 1,091 patients, 42/287(14.6%) with FIV≤7mL(25th-percentile) had mRS≥3; 65/275(23.6%) with FIV≥92mL(75th-percentile) had mRS≤2. Pre-specified pre-treatment factors(age/cancer/vascular risk-factors) were associated with FIV≤7mL/mRS≥3; stepwise models selected similar variables(similar AUCs:0.92-0.93,p=0.42). SAEs(infarct-in-new-territory/recurrent stroke/pneumonia/heart failure) were strongly associated with FIV≤7mL/mRS≥3; stepwise models also identified onset-to-needle time and hemoglobin(24-hours) as treatment-related/post-treatment factors(similar AUCs:0.92-0.94,p=0.14). Younger age was associated with FIV≥92mL/mRS≤2; stepwise models also selected diabetes absence and baseline hemoglobin(similar AUCs:0.76-0.77,p=0.82). Absence of SAEs(stroke progression/pneumonia/intracerebral hemorrhage) was strongly associated with FIV≥92mL/mRS≤2; stepwise models also identified 24-hour hemoglobin, glucose, and BP(similar AUCs:0.79-0.80,p=0.030). Conclusions: FIV-mRS discrepancies are associated with pre-treatment factors like age/comorbidities; and post-treatment complications related to stroke evolution, secondary prevention, and post-acute care quality. Optimizing thrombolysis speed, BP, glucose, and hemoglobin are modifiable factors meriting further study.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.047 | 0.063 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.002 | 0.005 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.005 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".