Section II The forecast in detail
Bibliographic record
Abstract
It now seems likely that the economy will grow by just over 3 per cent in 2000, although the fuel crisis has obscured the picture to some extent. The latest retail sales figures indicate strong growth in high street spending, with the three months to September 1.6 per cent higher than the previous three months and 4.3 per cent higher than the same period in 1999. Second quarter government consumption increased by 1.9 per cent to recover from the fall in the first quarter. This accelerated growth is needed to meet spending targets. Our forecast is for an overall 2 per cent growth rate in the current year rising to 4 per cent next year. Gross fixed investment was some 6 per cent higher in 1999 over the previous year, and we are forecasting this to slow to 21h per cent for the current year, rising to 5 per cent for the next two years. Inventory accumulation should recover from the de-stocking evident last year.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.003 | 0.003 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.312 | 0.225 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".