Comment on hess-2021-321
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract. Climate change may significantly increase flood risk globally, but there are large uncertainties in both future climatic changes and how these propagate into changing river flows. Here, the impact of climate change on the magnitude and frequency of high flows is analysed for Great Britain (GB) to provide the first spatially consistent GB projections to include both climate ensembles and hydrological model parameter uncertainties. We use the latest high-resolution (12 km) regional climate model ensemble from the UK Climate Projections (UKCP18). These projections are based on a perturbed-physics ensemble of 12 regional climate model simulations and allow exploration of climate model uncertainty beyond the variability caused by the use of different models. We model 346 larger (>144 km2) catchments across GB using the DECIPHeR hydrological modelling framework. Generally, results indicated an increase in the magnitude and frequency of high flows (Q10, Q1, and annual maximum) along the western coast of GB in the future (2050–2075), with increases in annual maximum flows of up to 65 % for western Scotland. In contrast, median flows (Q50) were projected to decrease across GB. Even when using an ensemble based on a single regional climate model (RCM) structure, all flow projections contained large uncertainties. While the RCM parameters were the largest source of uncertainty overall, hydrological modelling uncertainties were considerable in eastern and south-eastern England. Regional variations in flow projections were found to relate to (i) differences in climatic change and (ii) catchment conditions during the baseline period as characterised by the runoff coefficient (mean discharge divided by mean precipitation). Importantly, increased heavy-precipitation events (defined by an increase in 99th percentile precipitation) did not always result in increased flood flows for catchments with low runoff coefficients, highlighting the varying factors leading to changes in high flows. These results provide a national overview of climate change impacts on high flows across GB, which will inform climate change adaptation, and highlight the impact of hydrological model parameter uncertainties when modelling climate change impact on high flows.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.011 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.005 | 0.003 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.014 | 0.008 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.190 | 0.121 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".